Brenton, Tony, ed. 2017. Was Revolution Inevitable?: Turning Points of the Russian Revolution. London and New York: Oxford University Press.
Review by Michael Beach
This is an interesting volume. Each chapter has a different author. Each proposes a counter-factual ‘what if’ concerning pivotal moments in the history of the Russian revolution of the early 20th century. The individual authors are each historians whose academic scholarship have concentrated on Russia and the rise of the Soviet in particular.
Each of the cases are more or less persuasive. I think the strongest case was made by Orlando Figes in his chapter titled, “The ‘Harmless Drunk’: Lenin and the October Insurrection”. As the Tsarist hold was slipping and several parties were vying for power, it was by no means a given that the Bolsheviks would eventually take control of Russia. Lenin was living in exile in Germany for a number of years. As the revolution became stronger and more violent, he went back and forth between the two countries a number of times. In general, when the Red army gained ground he would come to Russia. When things seem to go the other way he fled back to Germany, or at least closer to it. Gains by the Red army did not equate to gains by the Bolsheviks, but they were at least sympathetic causes. As the royal household was falling and violence increased, Lenin entered Russia for the last time, but did so in cognito. He disguised himself as a drunk and meandered through the crowds until he could get to a safe house in the capital. Finges speculates what might have happened if any of the city police or White army guards had recognized him. They would surely have put him in jail. Though the Tsar would have fell out of power, both his brother and his son were likely to have formed a new Duma and held some sort of election before the Bolshevik party forcibly seized control over all the revolutionary factions. Lenin coming out of hiding and encouraging his party to put down other opposing parties through force likely is what caused the Tsar’s brother, a popular war hero, to recant and then get murdered along with the rest of the Romanov family. Any political leaders who originally were open to forming a new government quickly ceded when Lenin’s followers began to kill their political colleagues.
Personally, I’ve not explored this sort of historical approach before. In fact, Tony Brenton who authors one chapter and edits the volume, admits that most historians are loath to approach counter-factual musings. Each author acknowledges to what degree they believe their alternative may or may not have made any ultimate difference. Each gives reasons not just for how things might have changed, but also how it was just as likely, or even more so, that outcomes would have been no different. My look at Russian history and politics is at a very amateur level. I’ve read a book or two and visited Siberia twice for work reasons many years ago. These arguments by scholars imminently more qualified to document and speculate make this small part of human history jump out for me.